Top five key points of 2012 steel market year-end

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Year end summary of steel market in 2012: five key points of steel industry. Lack of flowers and applause, full of sadness and helplessness. A series of problems are testing this traditional industry. The iron and steel industry is experiencing a rare and severe situation in history. What is more regrettable is that there is still no good way to solve this dilemma, and the steel industry is still struggling along the old road stubbornly. The steel price at the end of the year is small, which may bring us a little hope for the coming year

with this hope and expectation, we take stock of 2012 in the steel industry

[excess] there is a serious overcapacity, and the average daily output of crude steel has reached a record high.

overcapacity has always been an old problem in the iron and steel industry, but the old problem was not solved in 2012. On the contrary, the growth is more unscrupulous. Since 2012, China's steel production capacity has been kept at a high level. China's crude steel production capacity rose from 610 million tons at the end of 2007 to 860 million tons at the end of 2011, an increase of 250 million tons in four years and more than 900 million tons in 2012

the cumulative output of crude steel in China in the first three quarters of this year was 542.34 million tons, an increase of 1.7% year-on-year. In the first three quarters, China's average daily output of crude steel reached 1979400 tons, of which only the daily average output of crude steel in August was less than 1.9 million tons, the daily average output of crude steel in April and June exceeded 2million tons, and the daily average output of crude steel in April reached a record high of 2.019 million tons

under this situation, the investment in fixed assets of the iron and steel industry is still at a high level this year. From January to October, the investment in fixed assets of the iron and steel industry totaled 414.27 billion yuan, an increase of 3.9% year-on-year. Although the growth rate decreased significantly, the investment still exceeded the level of 386.05 billion yuan in 2011, and the overcapacity was further aggravated. According to rough statistics, at present, HC performance films of Baosteel, WISCO and Angang are a better choice for packaging lightweight products that need high-pressure cushioning and protection. Shougang still has a steel production capacity of nearly 30million tons under construction

[downturn] the demand continues to be depressed, and the increase in crude steel consumption is the smallest in ten years.

affected by the decline of international economic growth and China's economic structure adjustment, China's GDP has entered a recession like cycle characterized by slowing economic growth since it hit a growth rate of 11.9% in the first quarter of 2010

the slowdown of economic growth has also directly led to the sluggish demand of the steel industry throughout the year. In this context, the performance of the construction industry and industry this year is not ideal, and it is in a collective "dumb" state. Except for the increase of automobile growth rate, the cumulative growth rate in the first 10 months decreased significantly, which directly inhibited the demand for steel

according to the calculation of steel demand, the increase of crude steel consumption is the smallest in recent ten years. According to the previous 10 months' average daily apparent consumption of crude steel of 1.856 million tons, the annual apparent consumption of crude steel in 2012 was 679 million tons, an increase of about 1.8% year-on-year

the PMI index of the steel industry is more evidence of this downturn. Since the fourth quarter of 2011, the iron and steel PMI has been lower than the 50% boom and bust line in all months except December 2011, April and October 2012. In August, it was as low as 33.9%, a new low in the past 45 months

[sharp drop] the steel price fell sharply. It went back to 18 years ago overnight. In 2012, the steel price plummeted after half a year of consolidation, and the rule that the long-term market will fall again came true. After deducting the slight rise of more than one month after the Spring Festival this year, the domestic steel price has been in a sharp decline trend from late August last year to early September this year. The prices of major steel varieties have fallen by 1500 yuan/ton. Since September, there has been a wave of oversold rebound. The average price of main varieties fell by 10%~15% year-on-year

in terms of main varieties, the average price of deformed steel bar is equivalent to that of hot coil, and the annual long timber is slightly stronger. In terms of subdividing varieties, hot-rolled and coated cold-rolled medium plates of screw threads and welded pipes. Whether the company produces syringes, needles, intravenous catheters, surgical instruments and some similar products in 30 places around the world can be proved from the price or output

according to the statistics of relevant institutions, from January to October this year, the steel price fell to the level close to that of 1994. Among them, the price of plate fell below the level of 1994 in August. After 18 years of hard work, the iron and steel industry "returned to the pre liberation days overnight"

[loss] the loss of iron and steel enterprises swept the whole industry again.

in the first 10 months of this year, the operating loss month of China's iron and steel industry reached 6 months, accounting for just 60%. Only in March, April, may and October, there was less than 1% of the meager profits, with a cumulative loss of 3.4 billion yuan. From January to February, 80 key large and medium-sized iron and steel enterprises lost 2.87 billion yuan. The automotive industry has higher requirements for the functionality and quality of the automotive surface than any industry; In March, the deficit was reversed; 3. In April and may, the total profits of key large and medium-sized iron and steel enterprises were 2.084 billion yuan, 1.79 billion yuan and 1.403 billion yuan respectively. The loss was recovered in June, with a loss of RMB 118million in June, RMB 1.9 billion in July and RMB 4.196 billion in August. The sales profit margin was -1.5%. Among the listed enterprises in the first three quarters, 6 of the top ten loss making enterprises were steel enterprises. According to this calculation, the actual loss of the steel industry is much larger than the published data

the annual loss of the iron and steel industry is a foregone conclusion, and the loss of the iron and steel industry has changed from the loss of the main iron and steel production industry in the previous stage to the loss introduced by jiafanghua, School of petrochemical engineering, Liaoning University of petrochemical technology and other insiders. This is the first industry wide loss since the beginning of the 21st century

in 2012, the steel inventory of key large and medium-sized enterprises remained at a high level of more than 10million tons, reaching a new high of 12.486 million tons in mid August. At the end of the first ten days of October, the steel inventory of key enterprises was 10.77 million tons, with a month on month increase of 1.5% and an increase of 25.7% over the beginning of the year

[reshuffle] the steel trading enterprises reshuffle their cards. The prediction was fulfilled this year.

2012, the biggest change in the steel circulation field is the outbreak of the credit crisis of steel traders. That is, the hidden rules of the industry, such as repeated pledge and false warehouse receipts, have been exposed, and some of them are even naked financial fraud. As a result, steel traders have encountered a credit crisis, and many enterprises have been involved in financial disputes. The Yangtze River Delta is the hardest hit area, especially in Shanghai. The warning of "the wolf is coming" was finally fulfilled this year. This year, the steel trading enterprises have undergone a major reshuffle, and the capital chain has been broken and the running events have occurred continuously. At present, about 1/3 of the steel traders in China have withdrawn from the steel trading industry

in the second half of this year, the number of financial lending cases involving banks, steel traders, guarantee companies, etc. increased significantly. The traditional financing mode of joint guarantee and mutual guarantee and pledge of steel traders has become invalid. Banks have generally restricted loans to steel trading enterprises, and steel trading funds are in an unprecedented tense situation. However, due to the shortage of funds, the function of steel traders as the reservoir of inventory is lost, and more and more steel traders are reducing inventory. Even if the price rises, most of them take the form of factory withdrawal and direct distribution to digest the agreed resources of steel mills, which greatly reduces the inventory level of the circulation market, reduces the activity of the overall market, and increases the inventory and capital pressure of steel enterprises

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